Story Highlights
- Trump’s net approval rating stands at -19.1 in the Silver Bulletin average as of May 31, lower than Biden at the same point (-13.6) and Trump’s own first term (-10.6)
- Pew Research Center recorded Trump’s approval at 34%, the lowest of his second term, with 48% of Americans strongly disapproving
- Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 has dropped 27 points since early 2025
What Happened
Polling data released in the final days of May and updated on June 1 paints a consistent picture of declining public support for President Donald Trump at the midpoint of his second term. The Silver Bulletin polling average, maintained by statistician Nate Silver, placed Trump’s net approval at -19.1 as of May 31 — a figure that is worse than President Joe Biden’s -13.6 at the same point in his term and notably worse than Trump’s own first-term average of -10.6 at a comparable time.
The Pew Research Center’s most recent survey, conducted in late April and published in May, found Trump’s approval at 34 percent — the lowest recorded mark of his second term. Within that figure, 48 percent of Americans reported that they strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance, a metric that pollsters consider particularly durable because strong disapproval rarely reverses without significant positive events. Just 21.7 percent strongly approve, with another 17.2 percent offering only qualified support.
Among the most politically significant findings is the erosion of Trump’s standing with the very voters who powered his 2024 coalition. According to Pew, Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters who supported him has dropped 27 points since early 2025, compared with a 14-point decline among his White supporters. Among Trump voters under the age of 35, approval has fallen to 57 percent — a stark drop from the near-universal support he enjoyed from his own voters immediately after the election.
Multiple factors have been cited by analysts as contributors to the decline. The Iran conflict has generated sustained criticism from both progressive opponents and America First conservatives. The anti-weaponization fund controversy has alienated Senate Republicans who might otherwise have defended the administration. The administration’s Medicaid cuts embedded in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which took effect or are scheduled to take effect on a rolling basis in 2026 and 2027, have generated broad public opposition. And persistently high prices for consumer goods and energy continue to weigh on public sentiment.
Why It Matters
Approval ratings matter in American politics primarily because they influence the behavior of congressional members of the president’s own party. Republican senators and House members in competitive districts make their own calculations about how closely to associate themselves with an unpopular president, and those calculations directly affect the administration’s legislative capacity. The stalled immigration enforcement package is a direct downstream consequence of the dynamic — Republican senators unwilling to absorb political risk for a White House they feel has not managed its own controversies responsibly.
The historical context makes the current numbers particularly alarming for the Republican Party’s midterm strategists. Trump’s net -19.1 approval is significantly worse than the typical historical pattern for incumbent-party performance in midterm elections. Political scientists have documented a consistent correlation between presidential approval ratings and midterm seat losses. With 2026 generic congressional ballot polling already showing Democrats with a slight advantage nationally, the conditions for significant Republican House losses are taking shape.
For American voters, the polling data reflects substantive concerns beyond partisan preference. Pew found that 56 percent of Americans believe the overall level of ethics and honesty in the federal government has declined during Trump’s term. Majorities express concern about healthcare affordability, rising energy costs, and economic uncertainty. These are not abstract ideological complaints — they reflect lived experiences that cut across traditional political identities and make even some Trump-leaning independents reconsider their alignment.
The approval trajectory also matters for the administration’s capacity to shape events in its final two years. A president with sub-40 approval has diminished leverage with Congress, with foreign leaders, and with the broader public on new policy initiatives. Every controversial action — the UFC White House event, the weaponization fund, the Iran war — becomes harder to defend when the baseline public trust reservoir is already depleted.
Economic and Global Context
The economic dimensions of Trump’s approval decline deserve particular attention. Despite the administration’s consistent messaging that it has delivered an economic golden age, polling data suggests a significant disconnect between that narrative and public perception. Analysts have noted that tariffs imposed in 2025 on Chinese and other imported goods have contributed to consumer price increases that voters feel directly. Gas taxes and related fees account for as much as 17 percent of the cost per gallon at the pump, and energy affordability consistently ranks among voters’ top three concerns.
The administration’s tariff-heavy trade policy has created uncertainty for businesses dependent on global supply chains, and that uncertainty has dampened corporate investment in some sectors. While headline economic indicators such as GDP growth and unemployment have remained relatively stable, the more granular experience of day-to-day purchasing power has not matched administration projections, contributing to the gap between official economic messaging and voter sentiment.
Internationally, a president with historically low domestic approval has reduced negotiating leverage. Foreign leaders, particularly those in ongoing negotiations such as the Iran ceasefire discussions, will note American political instability as a factor in their own calculations. Allies in Europe and Asia are also watching the midterm trajectory carefully, aware that a significant shift in congressional composition could alter the administration’s foreign policy and defense commitments.
The Federal Reserve has continued to navigate an environment of elevated uncertainty, with monetary policy decisions complicated by the mixed signals from tariff-driven price pressures and otherwise moderate demand conditions. Any further deterioration in consumer confidence — which approval polling can foreshadow — would add another variable to an already complex economic management challenge.
Implications
The 2026 midterm elections, expected in November, are now the defining political horizon for everyone in Washington. If Trump’s approval ratings do not recover meaningfully before then, the Republican Party faces real risk of losing its House majority, potentially its Senate majority, and certainly multiple governorships and state legislative chambers. Democratic strategists are already framing their campaigns around kitchen-table economic contrasts, and the approval data gives them a strong empirical foundation for that approach.
For the White House, the polling numbers create pressure to deliver visible wins — a successful Iran deal, a signed immigration enforcement package, a moment of national unity that the America 250 celebrations might theoretically provide. The June 14 UFC event, whatever its merits as policy or propriety, can be understood partly through this lens: an attempt to generate an overwhelmingly positive, visually dominant news cycle that temporarily reframes the national conversation.
Republican members of Congress face their own inflection point. The gap between the president’s approval and the generic congressional ballot suggests that Republican candidates who successfully differentiate themselves from the White House on select issues — particularly the weaponization fund, Medicaid cuts, or Iran — may perform better individually than the party’s national brand suggests. That calculus, already playing out in private strategy sessions, could produce more visible congressional independence from Trump in the months ahead.
Ultimately, the polling data reflects a president and a party that have spent significant political capital rapidly, on multiple fronts simultaneously, without yet delivering the signature economic relief that motivated much of Trump’s winning coalition in 2024. Whether the second half of Trump’s second term can reverse that trajectory — or whether the approval deficit becomes a self-reinforcing cycle of diminished legislative capacity and further voter disillusionment — is the central political question of the moment.
Sources
“Trump Loses Ground on Several Personal Traits as Approval Rating Slips”
