Story Highlights
- An American Research Group poll released June 22 found just 30% approval and 66% disapproval, both record marks for the pollster
- A separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll from June 18 put approval at 39%, also a second-term low
- Only 26% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy in the newer poll, with 82% of disapprovers expecting conditions to worsen
- Independent approval has fallen to roughly 34%, below the threshold that preceded a 41-seat Democratic wave in the 2018 midterms
What Happened
A poll released by the American Research Group on June 22 found that just 30% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 66% disapprove, the highest disapproval and lowest approval the pollster has recorded during either of his two terms in office. The survey, conducted June 16 through 20 among 1,100 respondents, carries a margin of error of roughly three percentage points. Among those who disapprove of Trump’s performance, a striking 82% said they expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year, a sign of just how pessimistic a significant share of the public has become.
The findings echoed a separate survey released just days earlier. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted June 8 through 11 found Trump’s approval rating at 39%, also a record low for his second term according to that pollster. Notably, only a third of respondents in that survey said they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy specifically, a figure NPR noted was lower than the worst marks recorded for former President Joe Biden during his term.
The economic discontent cuts across demographic and political lines. According to the Marist poll, 22% of self-identified Republicans said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and the share of Republicans who say they strongly approve of his overall performance dropped from 61% in April to 53% in June. Independent voters, a group critical to Trump’s 2024 victory, have shown particularly sharp erosion, with 64% disapproving of his performance, unchanged from the prior survey. Polling analyst tracking from the Silver Bulletin average placed Trump’s net approval at negative 18.9 as of this week, worse than his standing at the comparable point in his first term, when his net approval sat at negative 9.0.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle dismissed the polling in a statement, pointing instead to Trump’s 2024 election victory as what he called the “ultimate poll.” The president himself has previously brushed aside concerns about rising consumer prices, telling reporters earlier this month that he “loves the inflation,” a comment that drew criticism after the Labor Department reported that prices rose 4.2% in May compared to the previous year.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings, particularly among independent voters, are among the most reliable predictors of how a sitting president’s party performs in midterm elections. Independent approval currently sits around 34%, below the 36% threshold that preceded a 41-seat Democratic gain in the 2018 midterms during Trump’s first term. Historically, every president who lost more than 20 House seats in a midterm election saw independent approval fall below 40% heading into Election Day, a benchmark Trump’s numbers have now clearly crossed.
The economic dimension of this polling slide is particularly significant because affordability and cost-of-living concerns consistently rank among the top issues for voters across the political spectrum. The fact that a meaningful share of Trump’s own party, roughly one in five Republicans, now disapproves of his economic stewardship suggests the discontent extends beyond the typical partisan divide and reflects genuine anxiety about household finances.
For Republican lawmakers, particularly those representing competitive districts, the polling presents a difficult balancing act. Many must now decide how closely to align themselves with a president whose economic approval has fallen to record lows, even as they rely on his base for turnout. The dynamic was visible this week as Trump campaigned in Pennsylvania, attempting to make the case that conditions are improving even as polls suggest voters remain unconvinced.
The broader political stakes are considerable. A wave election in either chamber could fundamentally reshape the final two years of Trump’s term, determining whether his legislative agenda can advance or whether his administration faces an emboldened opposition with subpoena power and oversight authority.
Economic and Global Context
The economic backdrop driving this polling slide is substantial. Consumer prices rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, according to Labor Department data, a figure significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a major driver of the public’s souring economic mood. Much of that inflationary pressure has been tied to a combination of tariff-driven cost increases and the energy price shocks stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran, which disrupted oil shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in late February.
Gas prices, which spiked sharply after the war began, have only recently begun to ease, with crude oil prices settling around $73 a barrel this week, still elevated compared to pre-war levels. Trump has sought to frame falling oil prices as evidence that broader costs will soon follow, telling supporters in Pennsylvania this week that once oil declines, “everything else” will follow.
Globally, the polling slide also reflects unease about the broader trajectory of Trump’s foreign policy, particularly the protracted nature of the Iran conflict. A recent AP-NORC poll found that roughly two-thirds of American adults disapprove of how Trump has handled the situation with Iran, a figure that has remained essentially unchanged since May despite the signing of an interim ceasefire agreement.
Trade policy has compounded the economic anxiety. The administration’s tariff agenda, which has faced repeated legal challenges including a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year striking down certain emergency-powers tariffs, has contributed to higher costs for households, with independent estimates suggesting the average American household has absorbed well over $1,000 in additional costs this year as a result of tariff policy.
Implications
For the White House, the immediate challenge is finding a way to reverse the economic narrative before November. Trump’s Pennsylvania trip this week, focused heavily on touting job creation and falling oil prices, signals that the administration intends to make affordability and economic messaging a central theme of its midterm strategy, even as polling suggests voters are not yet persuaded.
For congressional Republicans, the approval numbers will likely shape decisions about how closely to tie their campaigns to the president’s record, particularly in competitive swing districts like Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, where Trump campaigned this week on behalf of an incumbent Republican facing a serious Democratic challenge.
For Democrats, the polling offers a clear opening to center their midterm messaging on cost-of-living concerns and economic discontent, an issue that appears to be resonating even among some of Trump’s own base supporters. Democratic strategists are likely to continue highlighting specific data points, such as the 4.2% inflation rate and the tariff-driven cost increases, as they court independent and moderate voters.
For everyday Americans, the polling underscores a broader sense of economic unease that, regardless of its political implications, reflects real concerns about prices, wages, and the lingering effects of an unresolved foreign conflict on household budgets heading into the second half of 2026.
Sources
