Story Highlights
- Trump’s net approval rating hit a new second-term low of -18.9 in the Silver Bulletin average as of May 16, 2026.
- A Pew Research Center survey found his overall approval at just 34 percent — the lowest reading of his second term.
- His approval among independent voters dropped 18 points compared to May 2025, according to Economist/YouGov polling.
What Happened
President Donald Trump‘s net approval rating hit a new second-term low of -18.9 in the Silver Bulletin average as of May 16, 2026, with roughly 48 percent of Americans strongly disapproving of his job performance. The reading reflects a sustained erosion that has accelerated as the Iran conflict, tariff litigation, and debates over Medicaid cuts have dominated the political landscape.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted April 20–26, 2026, found Trump’s overall approval at just 34 percent — the lowest mark of his second term — and noted that he has lost ground across a variety of personal attributes and issue areas. The Pew poll surveyed more than 5,100 U.S. adults and found that a majority believe the overall level of ethics and honesty in the federal government has declined during his tenure.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted May 1–4, 2026, found Trump’s overall approval at 36 percent, with 58 percent disapproving. Among independent voters, the same poll recorded just 25 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval — a net approval rating of -38 among that crucial swing group, representing an 18-point drop from May 2025.
The decline is not limited to the general public. Among Republicans who voted for Trump in 2024, approval has slipped notably among younger cohorts: 57 percent of Trump voters under 35 now approve, compared with 87 percent of his voters aged 50 and older. Hispanic Trump voters showed the sharpest drop, with a 27-point decline in approval since early 2025.
A separate aggregated average from FiftyPlusOne.news, which weights polls by quality and recency, showed Trump at 36.8 percent approval and 59.7 percent disapproval as of May 15, 2026, a margin of disapproval over approval of 23 percentage points.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings are among the most reliable predictors of midterm election outcomes. When a sitting president’s approval falls below 50 percent — especially into the low-to-mid 30s — the historical pattern strongly favors the opposition party picking up congressional seats. According to Brookings Institution analysis, Trump’s job approval, which stood above 50 percent when he took office for his second term, has now fallen to around 40 percent while public disapproval has risen by 13 points from 44 percent to 57 percent — levels that now point to substantial Democratic gains in November, including a potential new majority in the House.
The softening among independent voters is particularly alarming for Republican strategists. In competitive House and Senate races, independents often represent the decisive margin. An 18-point collapse in net approval among this group over a single year suggests that the policy controversies of 2025 and early 2026 — including the tariff upheaval, the Iran war, and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill — have taken a measurable toll on the president’s political standing beyond his partisan base.
A Morning Consult survey found Trump’s approval rating underwater in all seven battleground states expected to decide Senate control, and one political strategist described the numbers as “a warning light for Republicans, not a death sentence.” The distinction matters: warning lights can be heeded and managed with the right candidate quality and messaging, but they require deliberate action.
For Republican incumbents in swing districts, the approval trend creates a difficult calculation. Distancing from the president risks antagonizing the MAGA base that drives primary turnout, while embracing him in contested general elections may accelerate the alienation of independents that the polling now documents.
Economic and Global Context
A significant driver of Trump’s approval decline is economic sentiment. Tariff-related price increases have raised consumer costs across a range of goods, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict has contributed to oil market volatility. Public discontent has deepened with the president’s handling of a wide range of issues, including the war with Iran, and the mood of the electorate has soured broadly.
Historical comparisons provide some context for how unusual the current trajectory is. During Trump’s first term, his approval rating spent most of the presidency in the low-to-mid 40s — frustratingly stable for Democrats hoping for erosion but sufficiently below 50 percent to contribute to Republican losses in the 2018 midterms. His second term started considerably higher, near 50 percent, giving him a cushion he has since spent.
Inflation expectations remain elevated, and while the economy has continued to grow at an above-trend pace driven by artificial intelligence investment and resilient consumer spending, voters tend to evaluate economic conditions through a personal financial lens. Higher grocery prices and borrowing costs register more directly than GDP growth figures in how ordinary Americans assess their president’s performance.
Implications
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about retaking the Senate in the November midterms, though the political terrain remains difficult: they need to win races in at least five states that Trump carried in 2024 to recapture the Senate majority. The president’s declining approval provides Democrats with a structural tailwind, but it does not guarantee victories in states where the political culture remains fundamentally conservative.
Looking at Senate battleground races as tracked by Ballotpedia, Republicans are defending seven of the nine most contested seats, with Democrats defending two in states Trump won — Georgia and Michigan. That map, combined with declining presidential approval, represents a genuine exposure for Republican Senate candidates who cannot easily separate themselves from the White House.
For the president himself, the data has strategic implications. The White House may shift its communications emphasis away from culture war flashpoints that alienate moderates and toward economic deliverables — tips tax cuts, overtime deductions, and infrastructure investments — that the One Big Beautiful Bill includes and that could restore some working-class support before November.
The final six months before Election Day remain fluid. Presidential approval ratings can recover, particularly if a foreign policy breakthrough — such as a nuclear deal with Iran — generates a favorable news cycle. Whether such a development materializes, and whether it comes in time to meaningfully move polling numbers before voters cast their ballots in November, remains the defining open question of the 2026 political season.
Sources
“Donald Trump’s approval rating nosedives with independents”
