Story Highlights
- Trump’s net approval hit -18.9 in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 15, 2026, a record low for his second term.
- A CNN poll found only 30 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy — his lowest economic approval of his entire political career.
- Among voters aged 18 to 29, approval has collapsed by 47 points since early 2025, from a net positive rating to -42 in the latest YouGov survey.
What Happened
A wave of new polling data released in mid-May 2026 paints a troubling picture for President Donald Trump and his party heading into the final stretch before the November midterms. According to the Silver Bulletin polling average maintained by Nate Silver, Trump’s net approval rating reached -18.9 on May 15 — a new second-term low. Among U.S. adults specifically, that figure dropped further, to -20.6, with approximately 48 percent of Americans expressing strong disapproval of the president’s job performance.
The economic dimension is particularly striking. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS among nearly 1,500 U.S. adults in early May found Trump’s approval rating on the economy at just 30 percent, with 70 percent disapproving — a net rating of -40 that represents the lowest economic approval figure of his political career. That number reflects a 36-point deterioration from January 2025, when Trump held a +12 net approval on the economy at the outset of his second term.
The Economist/YouGov poll conducted May 9–11 among over 1,500 U.S. adults found overall approval at 36 percent versus 58 percent disapproval, a net rating of -22. Among voters aged 18 to 29, the numbers were even more severe: approval at just 25 percent, disapproval at 67 percent, yielding a net rating of -42 among young adults. AtlasIntel polling conducted May 4–7 corroborated these findings, showing Trump’s overall net approval at -20.3.
Brookings Institution analysis published in late April 2026 offered important context for what is driving these numbers. As of mid-to-late April, approval for Trump’s handling of inflation stood at 30 percent; the economy overall, 37 percent; and health care, 29 percent. Public approval for tariffs — long described by the White House as the centerpiece of the America First economic agenda — registered at just 38 percent. For the first time since 2010, according to Brookings analysts, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy — a seismic shift in a political landscape where economic stewardship has historically been a Republican strength.
The same analysis found that Trump’s overall job approval has fallen roughly 13 points from the highs of his second inauguration. His handling of immigration (45 percent) and crime (46 percent) remain his strongest performers, but those numbers reflect his base rather than the broader electorate. The Iran war, Brookings noted, has further reinforced the perception among many voters that the administration’s priorities are misaligned with everyday economic concerns.
Why It Matters
Approval ratings are not just political temperature checks — they function as early indicators of electoral outcomes, particularly in the midterm environment where the president’s party historically faces headwinds. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot in November 2026, the current trajectory of Trump’s numbers has direct implications for whether Republicans will be able to maintain their majorities in both chambers.
Historical patterns are instructive. Presidents with approval ratings in the low 40s or below at the midterm point typically see their party suffer meaningful seat losses in Congress. The combination of economic dissatisfaction, the costs and uncertainty associated with the Iran war, and the politically charged fallout from the One Big Beautiful Bill — which made substantial cuts to Medicaid and other social programs — has created a political environment that Democratic strategists believe is more favorable to their party than at any point in the Trump second term.
The collapse in approval among young voters is particularly significant. Gen Z and younger millennials gave Trump notably higher approval ratings at the outset of his second term than had been expected based on 2024 exit polling. That goodwill has now evaporated dramatically. A net approval of -42 among voters aged 18 to 29 represents a 47-point swing since early 2025, a movement that, if it holds through November, would substantially alter turnout dynamics in states with large university populations.
Economic and Global Context
The economic backdrop driving these numbers is not difficult to trace. Gasoline prices, which averaged around $2.98 per gallon at the start of the Iran war in February, have climbed to $4.52 — a direct and visceral tax on working households that shows up every time Americans fill their tanks. Diesel prices, critical to the trucking and agricultural sectors, are within 18 cents of their all-time high. These price increases have been compounded by persistent concerns about tariff-driven cost increases on imported consumer goods, from electronics to apparel.
The Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that the One Big Beautiful Bill would add $3.3 to $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade has also kept the fiscal outlook in the news, even as Republicans argue that economic growth projections used by the CBO understate the bill’s actual impact. The law’s provisions cutting Medicaid coverage — with an estimated 11.8 million Americans projected to lose coverage over the next decade — have become a focal point for Democratic messaging, even though the most significant Medicaid cuts do not take effect until late 2026 and beyond.
Brookings analysts have also flagged a broader structural concern: Trump’s perceived failure to focus on kitchen-table economic issues has cost him with voters outside his core base. A January 2026 survey found only 21 percent of respondents believed the president was focusing on the right priorities, compared to 47 percent who said his priorities were wrong.
Implications
For Republicans in competitive House and Senate districts, the current polling environment is a warning signal that must be taken seriously. Brookings analysts identified several Senate seats that were previously considered safe Republican territory — including in Iowa and Texas — as increasingly competitive. Democrats are also targeting seats in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio, where shifting approval numbers and the political fallout from the Big Beautiful Bill’s health care cuts may give challengers a realistic path to victory.
Democratic strategists have explicitly framed the Big Beautiful Bill as their centerpiece campaign issue, arguing that it directly harms ordinary voters through Medicaid cuts and deficit expansion while delivering the bulk of its tax benefits to higher-income households. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has vowed to “continue to communicate the harm this bill will cause” through November 2026.
For the White House, the challenge is not simply cosmetic — it requires producing visible economic wins that can shift voter sentiment before November. A resolution to the Iran conflict that brings down fuel prices would be the single most impactful economic development possible, but negotiations remain at an impasse. Absent that, the administration may be forced to rely on the phased implementation timeline of the Big Beautiful Bill’s tax cuts — including the no-tax-on-tips provision and expanded child tax credits — to generate positive economic messaging in the months ahead.
Sources
“Trump Approval Rating on Economy Sinks Across Three New Polls”
