Story Highlights
- Trump broke months of suspense and delivered his endorsement to Ken Paxton, citing Cornyn’s lack of support during Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and praising Paxton’s commitment to eliminating the filibuster and passing voter identification legislation.
- The endorsement came after Cornyn received the most votes in the March primary with 42 percent to Paxton’s 41 percent, but Republican leaders and major donors backed Cornyn while Trump’s political base favored Paxton as the more authentically conservative candidate aligned with Trump’s “MAGA” movement.
- The race has become the most expensive Senate primary in American history, with both parties spending more than $100 million, as Democrats hope Trump’s unpopularity creates an opportunity to win a Texas Senate seat for the first time since 1994.
What Happened
President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Ken Paxton in the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate in Texas, ending over a year of furious lobbying and giving the attorney general a significant boost in his campaign against Sen. John Cornyn, who finished first in the March runoff but was unable to convince Trump to endorse him. Trump’s announcement came via social media, the preferred medium through which the president communicates directly with his base without media filter. Trump wrote on social media that “Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,” praising Paxton’s support for ending the Senate filibuster and the GOP’s signature voting restrictions bill, and dinging Cornyn for being late to support his 2024 presidential bid.
The president’s statement also contained a particularly pointed critique of Cornyn’s previous skepticism about Trump’s political viability. Trump said “John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough.” This reference harked back to 2023 when Cornyn had stated that Trump’s “time has passed him by,” an assessment that proved politically incorrect after Trump won the 2024 presidential election. The senator eventually endorsed Trump, but the delay and initial skepticism became the justification for Trump’s ultimate decision to back his challenger.
Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a May 26 runoff after neither won a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary, with Cornyn, who is in his fourth term, narrowly ahead of Paxton, 42%-41%. The fact that Cornyn received more votes in the initial primary made Trump’s decision to back Paxton particularly significant, as it represented the president overruling the initial preference of a plurality of Republican primary voters. Paxton argued that Cornyn was not in touch with Trump’s MAGA base and the direction of the Republican Party, while Cornyn’s campaign highlighted a series of scandals that have plagued Paxton, including his wife filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” a felony indictment for securities fraud that was later settled and an impeachment vote in 2023, where he was later acquitted.
Trump’s backing of Paxton, after early voting in the runoff began Monday, comes after weeks of speculation about whether he would weigh in on the race, as he had seemed ready to back Cornyn after the March primary, but he later tied his endorsement to passage of the SAVE America Act, a proposal to overhaul the nation’s voting laws, with Paxton saying he would consider dropping out if Senate leadership agreed to kill the 60-vote threshold to end debate on legislation, known as the filibuster, to pass the measure. This linkage between Trump’s endorsement and a specific legislative agenda—eliminating the filibuster to pass voting restrictions—revealed the transactional nature of Trump’s political leverage and his willingness to make demands on Senate Republicans.
Why It Matters
Trump’s intervention in the Texas Senate race demonstrates his overwhelming control of Republican primary politics. Despite enjoying the support of the Senate Republican leadership, a massive fundraising advantage, and the accomplishment of winning more votes in the initial primary, Cornyn faced a crisis because he did not have Trump’s blessing. This illustrates how completely the Republican Party has reorganized itself around Trump’s personal political movements rather than around traditional party structures or leadership. Senate Republican leaders, who have significant power over committee assignments, legislative agenda, and campaign resources, found themselves unable to protect one of their own against Trump’s political preference.
The endorsement also matters because it comes amid a broader pattern of Trump using his power to punish Republican politicians who failed to support him during critical moments. Last weekend, another Republican senator, Louisiana’s Bill Cassidy, lost his primary after Trump endorsed an opponent. This pattern creates a chilling effect throughout the Republican Party, where politicians understand that failing to support Trump early and enthusiastically carries serious electoral costs. Senators who prioritize legislative accomplishments, budget negotiations, or other responsibilities that might require independence from Trump face the prospect that Trump will back primary challengers against them.
For Texas specifically, the race carries enormous implications for the 2026 general election. The nominee will take on Democrat James Talarico in the fall. Democrats have not won a statewide Texas election since 1994, making a Senate flip seem unlikely on its surface. However, Trump’s approval ratings have declined from their 2024 levels, and Democrats are hopeful that weakened Republican enthusiasm could create an opening. While Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024, Democrats have long sought to win the state, and they believe they could have a shot this year as Trump’s approval rating has dropped. Whether Paxton or Cornyn becomes the nominee could affect Republican turnout and enthusiasm in the general election, with Paxton potentially energizing Trump’s base but also potentially creating vulnerabilities due to his scandal history.
Economic and Global Context
Senate composition directly affects the federal budget, tax policy, trade agreements, and regulatory matters that influence economic activity. A Texas Senate seat therefore carries enormous economic consequences. The filibuster question that Trump linked to his endorsement is particularly important, as it determines whether the Republican majority can pass legislation without Democratic support. If Trump successfully pressures Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster in service of the SAVE America Act—a voter identification bill—this could fundamentally alter the balance of legislative power and enable Republicans to pass tax cuts, regulatory changes, and spending measures that Democrats currently could block.
The endorsement also affects business confidence in Republican governance. Uncertainty about party discipline and the actual decision-making power of elected officials can create volatility in markets. Investors prefer to understand the chain of command and the actual locus of authority. If Republican senators appear beholden to Trump’s whims rather than exercising independent judgment, this could affect investment decisions and economic planning by corporations that deal with federal government policy.
Trade and immigration policies are particularly affected by Senate composition. Trump has prioritized high tariffs and restrictive immigration enforcement, both of which affect businesses in Texas and across America. A more Trump-aligned Senate (with Paxton rather than Cornyn) might facilitate these policies more readily, creating different economic outcomes than a Senate with more traditional Republicans.
Implications
If Paxton wins the runoff on May 26, Trump will have successfully installed a senator more aligned with his personal movement, creating a cascade effect where other vulnerable Republicans must consider whether Trump-skepticism remains politically viable. This would accelerate the replacement of establishment Republicans with Trump loyalists, potentially making future Senate action on matters Trump opposes nearly impossible. A Paxton victory would also validate Trump’s power to determine Republican nominees and would likely prompt him to intervene in additional races where he perceives insufficient loyalty.
If Cornyn somehow wins despite Trump’s opposition, this would signal limitations on Trump’s ability to dictate outcomes and could embolden other Republican senators to resist Trump’s demands on legislation or judicial nominees. However, the historical pattern suggests Cornyn’s path to victory against Trump’s opposition is narrow.
In the general election, a Paxton nomination gives Democrats ammunition due to his scandal history, but it also potentially energizes Trump’s base to turn out for Republicans. A Cornyn nomination would maintain the status quo of a secure Republican seat but would represent a victory for traditional Republican leadership over Trump’s movement politics—a rare recent occurrence. The race thus serves as a referendum on the future direction of the Republican Party and on whether Trump’s personal dominance over Republican politics will continue to intensify.
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