Story Highlights
- Only 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove, according to a new NPR survey conducted April 27–30
- Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 42% on the congressional generic ballot — a margin that in past years has signaled a wave election
- Gas prices averaging $4.48 per gallon nationally, up from under $3 before the Iran war, with 81% of Americans saying prices are straining their household budgets
What Happened
The survey of 1,322 respondents was conducted April 27–30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Just 37% of respondents approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing overall, while 59% disapprove. By a 52%–42% margin, respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district if congressional elections were held today.
Those challenges have given Democrats a distinct advantage in the midterm elections. Democrats also have the edge on enthusiasm to vote, which is critical in midterm years when turnout is expected to be lower than in presidential election years. Democrats are 8 points more likely than Republicans to say they’re “very enthusiastic” to vote — 61%–53%.
Gas prices have surged to an average of $4.48 a gallon nationally, as of May 5, according to AAA. Before the war, prices were below $3 a gallon on average. As a result, 81% of respondents said current gas prices are a strain on their household budget, including 79% of Republicans. By a 63%–37% margin, respondents said they blame Trump for the current increase in gas prices. That includes a third of Republicans.
The same split said the economy is not working well for them personally — the worst recorded in the survey. A majority — 56% — said their area is not very affordable or not affordable at all. Among those saying the economy is not working well for them were white non-college women at 72%, those making less than $50,000 a year at 71%, millennials at 69%, and those aged 18–29 at 65%.
In the first four months of 2026, the midterm prospects for Republicans have darkened further. Trump‘s job approval, which stood above 50% when he took office for his second term, has fallen to around 40% while public disapproval has risen by 13 points — from 44% to 57%. For the first time since 2010, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy.
Why It Matters
A ten-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the kind of number that, in a normal election environment, would be described as a near-certain wave. The current numbers resemble the political conditions that produced Democratic waves in 2006 and 2018, when the party out of power made sweeping gains in the House and fundamentally altered the legislative landscape for the sitting president. The question in 2026 is whether structural factors — particularly the ongoing redistricting battle — can absorb enough of that wave to preserve the Republican majority.
The economic frustration reflected in the polling is both deep and broad. When 79% of the president’s own party members say gas prices are hurting their household budget, that represents a qualitatively different kind of political vulnerability than ordinary partisan disapproval. Economic pain cuts across party lines, and the data suggests Trump has lost the economic credibility that formed a central pillar of his political brand.
In the six special elections for the House conducted in 2025–2026, the swing toward Democratic candidates averaged about 15 points, while the swing toward Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia averaged 14 points. While the current generic ballot suggests a somewhat smaller pro-Democratic swing, these margins tend to expand as the election nears.
The enthusiasm gap is potentially the most dangerous number for Republicans. In midterm elections, where overall turnout is lower and the composition of the electorate is more dependent on activation and mobilization, an eight-point enthusiasm advantage for Democrats translates directly into structural ballot advantages that money alone cannot easily overcome.
Economic and Global Context
The polling data reflects the direct and measurable economic toll of the Iran war on American households. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil supply has historically flowed, has been disrupted by the ongoing military conflict, sending energy prices to levels Americans had not seen in years. The downstream effects on food prices, transportation costs, and consumer goods have been substantial and broadly felt.
The Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll found that six months ahead of the November midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with Trump’s leadership on the Iran war and other key issues. Democrats now hold a five-point advantage in support for Congress, up from two points in February.
Independent voters — who are neither locked into Democratic enthusiasm nor firing on Republican loyalty — present a particular challenge. Just 38% of independents say they’re very enthusiastic about voting, indicating a likely drop-off in turnout from the presidential election. Whether that drop-off hurts Democrats more than it hurts Republicans, or simply flattens the turnout calculus for both parties, will be one of the central questions of the November elections.
Implications
With six months until Election Day, the numbers give Democratic candidates and party operatives significant reason for optimism — but also a clear warning. Large polling leads in generic ballot tests have not always translated into comparable seat gains, particularly when gerrymandering has reduced the number of truly competitive districts. The battle over redistricting now underway in states across the South could meaningfully reduce the number of seats in which Democratic enthusiasm can make a practical difference.
Democrats have a serious chance of flipping Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio, while Iowa and Texas are no longer regarded as sure bets for Republicans. To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats need to net four additional seats. Senate races are harder for Democrats to flip because the seats on the ballot this cycle lean Republican, meaning flipping the chamber requires a higher-than-ordinary performance even in a wave year.
For Trump, the numbers make the legislative calendar between now and November an urgent priority. Every piece of legislation signed, every policy delivered, and every economic indicator that moves in the right direction between now and the fall represents an opportunity to change the conversation. The challenge is that the Iran war — the single largest driver of his declining approval — is not a domestic policy variable his team can easily optimize.
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